My Blue Heaven
We get a hint at how He will arrive. Also, we discuss The World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers and the 2020 Election. Our Big Get is retired CIA operative John Sipher, and of course On The Bottom Shelf.
Now We Know
Maybe this was the week of Sunday School that I missed but I wasn't expecting Him to arrive this way.
My Blue Heaven
It’s 1988 and I’m 13 and just 6 months removed from seeing my Granny, my lifelong best friend and my two cats, Illsa and Muffin. We’re living 1200 miles away from where I grew up, in a place I’d never heard of called Anderson, Indiana— think cornfields interspersed with GM plants. They could’ve filmed Footloose here.
The town is booming but I’m dying inside. Anderson was a place where a high school graduate could walk into a $20/hour union job and be set for life. It had 13 branches of the Church of God, it’s worldwide headquarters, rednecks, and one incredibly miserable and lost seventh grader.
I’ve loved the Dodgers since Jerry Reuss threw a no-hitter on June 27th, 1980 while I was in attendance with my mom and the man who loved me so much that I later took his last name as my way of thanking him. He loved baseball but I’d never seen a game before this one. I had no idea what a “no-hitter” was but I had been to enough Fort Lauderdale Strikers games to realize that the home fans don’t usually root for the visiting team. The fact that the people in a windy and cold Candlestick Park were rooting for the Dodgers made me do so as well.
But back to 1988. Having since been to therapy and had the “depression” conversation, I recognize the sad and angry teenager from 1988. He hated everyone. The hypocrites at his church, his classmates for violently rejecting him, his extended family for forgetting him. If I’m being honest he wasn’t too happy with his parents, either. But, beginning in February 1988, he had daily sports scores that told of another Dodgers win and each morning when that alarm went off and the local radio station read off the score of another win, he got to start an otherwise bleak day with a smile.
Fast forward through an interesting summer where I joined a group on a bike trip from Central Indiana to Winnipeg, Manitoba and each evening saw me desperately search for a radio so that I could catch the scores each morning. Beginning a grueling day with a giant smile after each Dodger win was also a win for me.
We know how this story ends. My beloved Dodgers, led by childhood hero Orel Hershiser, heroic gimp Kirk Gibson, and the merry band of Stuntmen shocked the world by beating one of the best teams in baseball history to take it all home.
Hmmmm… scared and facing dark, uncertain times and seeking a diversion? Isn’t that really what being a sports fan is about?
My Prediction
I had all of this ready to go and then on the morning I was scheduled to publish this I had coffee with my buddy, Tom Grigsby. Grigs is the unofficial mayor of Tallahassee, but more importantly for this conversation, he’s a data guy. Grigs knows data like Bill Gates knows computers. And, as he always does, he made me think about a few things.
Putting aside the methodology regarding how pollsters are building their own turnout models (which vary quite widely) he brought up the nightmare scenario: actual vote fraud.
Imagine that a foreign power (oh, say Russia, China or even North Korea) is able to get their hands on an actual, mail in ballot (not hard to do.) Next, they make numerous duplicate copies of those ballots, with everything duplicated perfectly (ballot number, signature, personal information, etc.) And then they flood the system with those duplicate ballots, which would be automatically rejected by the local election authorities and thus invalidate the legitimate votes.
Just in case you actually were sleeping too well recently.
Florida Man Explains Florida
Political strategist, long-suffering Jags fan and all around nice guy Steve Schale has an update on the status of Florida one week out. I can promise you that no one on Earth knows Florida numbers like Schale:
Floridians are voting. It is really remarkable. As of this morning, more than 50.6% of Democrats have voted – and overall, turnout is 44.5%. (GOP is 46.2% and NPA is 34.2%)
In total 6.45 million voters have voted. By comparison, the total who voted before Election Day in 2016 was about 6.6 million voters. There is a decent chance by the time I hit send on this memo, the state will pass that number. I now believe turnout will be north of 11 million people – which is roughly 76%. How much north of 11? Ask me in a week.
For comparison, Florida hit 77% in 1980, 79% in 1968, and 83% in 1992. It was 75% in both 08 and 16. Overall, I fall on the side of thinking that the higher the turnout, the better it is for my team – and while this isn’t a hard and fast rule, higher turnout in a state that is getting more diverse should mean an electorate that is overall younger, and more diverse than a typical election – and even if that doesn’t change the overall R vs D make-up – because so many younger voters of color register as NPA, this should be good. Again though – no guarantees in life.
As of this morning, Democrats hold a 302K voter margin. The Democratic lead is all in vote by mail returns. The Republican advantages come entirely from in-person early voting. This is the cats and dogs have switched places side of this election. It is like when the Jaguars are good, and nothing seems normal.
As you may have noticed if you follow me on twitter, I haven’t gotten into the day to day reporting – not when the Dem advantage was climbing in early returns, and not as the GOP has chipped away at it – because neither number really tells much of a story – because of voting trends.
What I am watching is more basic: who has actually voted – who has not voted that we know will vote – and who is voting that we didn’t or might not expect to vote.
So, let’s look at this a little.
Among Democrats: 85% of those who have voted showed up in 2016 and/or 2018.
Among Republicans, it is 81%
Among NPA’s, it is 79%
To look at this a different way, among the universe who showed up in 2016 and/or 2018, Democrats have seen 59% of their vote already cast, Republicans 48% and NPA 47%.
Useful Primer on Polling
It Worked for Me
This post from author Tucker Max reminded me of a practice that I recently took up this year in the midst of some difficulty. I couldn’t recommend it more:
The Big Get
John Sipher
I added this feature to the very fist edition simply because I wanted an excuse to talk to fascinating people. And John Sipher certainly qualifies. John retired in 2014 after a 28-year career in the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, which included serving in Moscow and running the CIA’s Russia operations. He served multiple overseas tours, as Chief of Station and Deputy Chief of Station, in Europe, the Balkans, Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. He also ran Russian operations at headquarters. John retired as a member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service, and received the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. He is the co-founder of Spycraft Entertainment.
Where did you grow up? Did anything in your childhood make you want to serve your country? How did you end up joining the CIA?
I’m from Cortland, NY, a small town in the Finger Lakes region of upstate New York. My parents were teachers and I was always interested in history, biography and politics. Our house always had a lot of books around, and my parents were politically active. I recall my parents hosting a fund-raising party for the father of NFL Commissioner Goodell when he was running for Senate in New York. I studied history and political science at Hobart College and did a semester overseas, and really loved it. I went to graduate school at Columbia University to study international affairs, arms control and Soviet studies. I knew that I wanted to do something related to government and national security. I won a Presidential Management internship (the program is now called Presidential Management Fellowship, I think) and was looking at a variety of federal agencies from State to NASA and DoD. The internship was a leadership fast-track program that allowed the applicant to move up the civil service ladder at a faster rate. I also applied to CIA and was going through the miserable interview process that includes background checks, psychological testing and a polygraph. I eventually became focused on joining CIA to be an analyst working on military issues. I tried to apply the Presidential internship to CIA but they were one of the few agencies that did not support the program. I eventually joined CIA in 1986 and switched from the career analytical track to the “operations” track during my initial training. After entering I assumed that I would work for a couple years and go back and get a PhD. However, during the training I learned more about the more secretive covert side of the organization and switched over. I never worked as an analyst. Luckily, my onboarding psychological testing pegged me as someone who would fit into the clandestine service. 28 years and multiple countries later I retired. It was a wonderful career.
How different was the reality of being in the agency compared to what you were expecting?
I really don’t know what I was expecting. I knew that I wanted to deal with issues that mattered and I was just happy to have a job. As I applied, I learned about the analytical component of CIA. It is like a small college with experts on all the issues that might interest national security practitioners. Only when I started training did I learn about the other functions of the Agency, and decided that the clandestine side of the house provided both cerebral, varied and action oriented career I was looking for. The first few years were focused on training to work overseas, including area studies, language training and learning basic espionage and paramilitary skills.
Basically, from day one it was challenging, fun and fulfilling. I was around smart and interesting people and able to make an impact on the issues of the day. I have no regrets.
What scares you the most about this upcoming election?
I worry immediately about violence. We have too many armed and angry people – people who are often acting on misinformation.
Over the longer term I think the even bigger threat is the undercutting of trust in our country, and in our institutions. The structures, process and institutions that we rely on to underpin out security are under threat by the President and his enablers. US prosperity is built upon rule-of-law, a professional civil service, a fair system that provides equal opportunity, a place that welcomes talented immigrants and a reputation for professionalism and fairness around the world. Unlike many other countries, we do not have a corrupt system where those in power steal and jail their opponents. I worry that the President is threatening these strengths and undercutting our moral authority.
Trump era has been an assault on intelligence, professionalism, expertise, accountability and truth. I don’t think most people realize the tremendous benefit that accrues to the US from our reputation around the world. Our allies are a force multiplier and our fair and professional system attracts business and investment.
I also don’t think that previous Administrations have done enough to educate the populace on the importance of a professional and wholly non-partisan military, intelligence, civil and foreign service. Our institutions are professional and powerful. They have been through decades of reform and improvement. The world is a complex place and they don’t get everything right, but the American people can rely on the fact that the talented and trained people in the various agencies and institutions are working wholly on behalf of the American people.
For whatever reason, President Trump sees his domestic political opponents as his real enemies to vanquish (rather than foreign foes), and believes that government agencies should be at his disposal to attack, arrest and spy on his domestic opponents. As such he is willing to inject politics and spite into the powerful institutions of government. This is both dangerous and damaging to the long-term health of the country.
These actions will erode trust at all levels of society, and with allies overseas. From my experience overseas, it has taken years working on numerous difficult and sometimes dangerous issues to build up trust with our allies and partners overseas. This trust is hard to come by, but easy to destroy.
4. How did you get involved with The Lincoln Project and what is your role?
I assume my snarky Twitter habits appealed to the Lincoln Project founders. While I am not a Republican, I am a centrist and realize that real governing and solutions involve compromise. I respect that life-long Republicans can see the damage that the President is doing to our system. I think they understand that he is destroying the Republican Party at the same time he is eroding trust in government. I believe our country needs healthy political parties, and that when the parties are too far to either extreme, we are unable to work together and compromise to get things done. Having worked in national security, I learned that the real issues we face are difficult and complex. Partisan talking points on either side are rarely helpful in addressing our challenges. I respect that the Lincoln Project team is able to put tribal and partisan affiliations aside to focus on the bigger threat to our country – an unfit and unstable President.
5. What was your favorite posting?
Frankly, I enjoyed all of my posts. Like foreign service officers, CIA officers often spend 2-4 years at a posting before moving on. Work in dangerous or war zones are usually a year in length. Our families are with us for most overseas postings and their health and well-being goes a long way toward having a productive and successful tour of duty. I worked in Europe, the Balkans, Southeast Asia and South Asia. I really enjoyed learning new cultures and issues, and exploring new countries. I think that while it was not the most comfortable of my postings, my time in Moscow had a large impact on my development as an intelligence officer.
At CIA we use to call Moscow the Yankee Stadium of espionage. The Russian security services are the best in the world. They are aggressive, skilled and willing to put time and energy into thwarting US diplomatic, military and intelligence initiatives. When I was there, my colleagues and I were under relentless and all-encompassing surveillance. Our homes were bugged with audio and video. We were followed everywhere we went at all times of the day and night. Everyone we met was questioned and interrogated. The Russian employees in the Embassy reported to the security services, and they targeted us with a variety of technical, electronic and chemical attacks.
Russia is a fascinating country with a rich history and culture. It was also an incredibly challenging and intense place to work. When we beat the Russians at their own game, it was especially satisfying.
6. What's your favorite story that you are allowed to tell?
To describe the level of scrutiny that we faced in Russia, I like to tell the story from one of my colleagues. He was a runner. After a long winter where he was unable to run, he finally went for a run after work. When he came home the next day (we all lived in large, ratty, Soviet era high-rises), one of his running shoes was missing. He was surprised because he was usually a very organized guy and meticulous about putting things away. The next day he took some time out of the work day to go buy a new pair of running shoes, and again went for a run that evening. However, when he got home again the next evening, one of the new shoes was missing. He immediately realized what had happened. The Russian surveillance team was expressing its frustration with his new habit, and was breaking into his home to take the shoes. Knowing that his apartment was bugged he went to the living room and addressed the ceiling where he assumed there were listening devices. He said that he needed to run, and planned to run every evening. He said he would continue to buy shoes. He explained exactly the route he would run, from his place to the park along the river and back.
When he returned home the next evening, both sets of running shoes were back in place, and when he went for a run the surveillance vehicle that followed him was prepared. When he entered the park, the surveillants pulled a foldable bicycle from the trunk of the car and followed him through the park.
7. What is the best on-screen portrayal of a CIA agent? The worst? Given that you are a consultant to Hollywood, what's one film portrayal of the CIA that really makes you grit your teeth?
Over the last couple years, I have been working with a colleague to make espionage shows and movies through my company Spycraft Entertainment. At almost every meeting we are asked which films best depict real life in the CIA. We don’t really have a good answer. Some shows like Homeland give a decent sense of overseas environments, but are way off in other ways. The Americans provides a sense of how we use espionage tradecraft but goes way off base with all the murders. I wrote a short piece for a British publication on what I think Hollywood does both well and poorly.
Our life is more fun and funny than is usually portrayed. Too often espionage films are pigeonholed into the action genre and spend too much time in car chases and shootouts. Everything is tense and charged at all times. As I mentioned in my piece, real espionage is about the human relationships. It explores flawed individuals, trust, betrayal, ego, manipulation, secrecy, psychology, cowardice, bravery and vulnerability, all placed within the pressure cooker of international politics and national security. Our work is less about good against evil than a constant balance of moral and ethical dilemmas in an environment with no obvious answers. We enjoy and care about the people we meet, and the work, while important and challenging, can also be fun and farcical.
8. What is it about Russia that most people don't understand?
Russia is one of those places that is impossible to fully understand. It developed differently than much of the rest of Europe. They had no Renaissance or Reformation, and the mercantile and legal structures did not develop like they did in Europe. Instead, Russia was always ruled by brutal Tsars and dictators. They did not have natural, defensible borders and were invaded and pillaged throughout their history.
Thus, Russia and the Soviet Union developed extremely powerful, oppressive, brutal and capable security services whose sole job was to keep the leadership in power at all costs. Unlike in the west, the “intelligence” service ran prison camps, engaged in assassination, suppressed religion and domestic groups, and engaged in subversion, disinformation and espionage outside the country.
As we saw in the 2016 election, just like over the past century, Putin’s primary weapon in his war against the west are his intelligence and security agencies. A KGB officer himself, The KGB and its follow-on Russian equivalents were useful weapons for Putin to establish control domestically, and also to keep foreign enemies off-balance.
Unlike western intelligence services that largely collect intelligence to better inform policymakers, Soviet and Russian intelligence has a more active role – to keep the leadership in power by weakening or destroying domestic political opponents, and engaging in subversion abroad. The Kremlin expects its spies to steal secrets, but to also engage in a form of hybrid warfare that relies on propaganda, disinformation, deception, support to fringe and violent groups, provocation, agitation and even assassination.
Thus, while intelligence in the west is only a support mechanism to policymakers, in Russia it is a central part of Russia’s foreign and domestic policy. It’s Putin’s main weapon. To give an example, the Russian foreign and domestic intelligence agencies engaged in sophisticated operations to dope their Olympic and Paralympic teams, and then attack the international anti-doping agency. Just last week, we found out that Russia engaged in a brazen cyber-attack against the Tokyo Olympics.
In Russia, the secret services are not just another tool for Putin, they are central to everything he does.
9. Do you have a favorite Russian novel?
Not really. I read a lot but almost always non-fiction.
10. It's 1030 on a Friday night. Where are we most likely to find you?
At this stage of my life, you are likely to find me in bed reading, watching sports or a streaming series, or asleep.
11. Favorite whiskey?
While I was overseas, my go-to drink was always scotch. While working with the British service once on a sensitive counterintelligence case, I was even able to take a whisky tour of Scotland. I usually went for the peaty scotches of Islay. Since I retired, I now drink bourbon whiskey (note the different spellings). I think I avoided bourbon for years because crappy stuff we got sick on as kids. Nowadays my go-to is Buffalo Trace for an old-fashioned, Manhattan or a mix with vermouth and Aperol.
On The Bottom Shelf
Pendleton Canadian Whisky
I decided to switch things up this week as a nod to the folks who think I focus too heavily on bourbon. Au contraire, dear reader. I’m a fan of pretty much all whisk(e)y and we absolutely want to talk about all of them.
This week’s pick is Pendleton, which is a recent discovery on my part. It’s a blended Canadian Whisky finished with glacier water from Oregon’s Mt. Hood and aged in new oak barrels for 10 years. Canadian Whisky tends to be lighter and much smoother than other whiskies in part because each grain that makes them up is fermented and distilled separately and only combined at the end. But contrary to belief, they’re not exclusively made from rye.
Pendleton’s color is lighter than most bourbons and comes out as a watery caramel color. But on pouring, the nose is sweet with a hint of butterscotch and caramel. I also picked up a little maple syrup vibe, which seems appropriate given it’s heritage.
Your first sip gives you some caramel and a little raw liquor flavor. There’s a small amount of burn up front but certainly not to the level of being unpleasant. It is whisky, after all. There’s a bit of a sweet, rye finish at the end.
I really enjoyed this. Canadian Whisky has a reputation for being watery vodka with some added flavoring, but it’s a great entry point into the category and perfect for sipping with friends.
Writer For Hire
I’d be remiss in not pointing out that my writing services are currently available. I can assist you with speech writing, digital content creation and management, and creation and management of an email list. You know, like the one you are reading. Heck, earlier this year I drafted a letter to the United States Justice Department to appeal for clemency for a client and it was successful.
Serious enquirers can reply directly to this email.
The Best Things I Saw This Week
The kindness and generosity of strangers.
The Spiritual Blessing of Political Homelessness by David French
With a new book out, Matthew McConaughey sat down with Tim Ferris and Mark Maron.
This comment from Benjamin made my day
@RealJacobPerry Even though we differ quite a bit politically, I enjoy reading your thoughts and would support your work. The bourbon section has given my dad and I a new talking point (I'm not a bourbon fella myself).
That’s all, folks!
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Monticello was created by and published by Jacob Perry. Our editor and contributor is Jessica Redding. On social media: